Cotswold
Conservative hold

This constituency includes many of the names renowned in Cotswold tourism, such as Bourton on the Water, Chipping Campden, Stow on the Wold, Lechlade and Northleach, as well as its largest town Cirencester, the home of the Royal Agricultural college, and Fairford with it annual air show. This sounds Conservative enough, and it is, especially as the Liberal Democrats sank by 10pc as Labour rose by the same amount in 1997, a rare example of a kind of reverse tactical voting, which let the Tory Geoffrey Clifton-Brown through the middle with almost as great a majority as calculated in 1992. We say "calculated" because this was a newly named seat, which may have reduced the tactical voting possibilities through confusion about who was likely to be second - or maybe the calculators got it wrong in this case, as they seem to next door at Tewkesbury. In any case, there seems little scope for tactical voting again, as it is once more unclear who will finish runner-up - but not who will come first.

The short, square-faced countryman Geoffrey Clifton-Brown, a Whip under Hague, is part of a dying breed, as a scion of a political dynasty going back to the 19th century, and producing seven MPs, including a post-war Speaker. He inherited the larger forerunner of this seat from Nick Ridley in 1992. A 900-acre Norfolk farmer, born 1953, one of his party’s 15 Etonians in 1997, he attended Royal Agricultural College, Cirencester, and is linked through his mother to the opulent Vestey meat trading family. More abrasive and partisan than his mild looks suggest, he is a whipper-in for the hunting, shooting and fishing brigade. He is also concerned about world population growth.

Area Percent GB Percent Index GB=100   Thriving Wealthy Achievers, Suburban Areas 26.66% 14.99% 177.81 Affluent Greys, Rural Communities 12.24% 2.13% 575.57 Prosperous Pensioners, Retirement Areas 7.26% 2.49% 291.94 Expanding Affluent Executives, Family Areas 7.82% 4.43% 176.65 Well-Off Workers, Family Areas 2.50% 7.27% 34.36 Rising Affluent Urbanites, Town & City Areas 0.43% 2.56% 16.90 Prosperous Professionals, Metropolitan Areas 0.00% 2.04% 0.00 Better-Off Executives, Inner City Areas 0.29% 3.94% 7.28 Settling Comfortable Middle Agers, Mature Home Owning Areas 23.05% 13.04% 176.76 Skilled Workers, Home Owning Areas 4.14% 12.70% 32.55 Aspiring New Home Owners, Mature Communities 10.92% 8.14% 134.14 White Collar Workers, Better-Off Multi Ethnic Areas 0.28% 4.02% 7.08 Striving Older People, Less Prosperous Areas 2.46% 3.19% 77.30 Council Estate Residents, Better-Off Homes 1.86% 11.31% 16.43 Council Estate Residents, High Unemployment 0.04% 3.06% 1.42 Council Estate Residents, Greatest Hardship 0.00% 2.52% 0.00 People in Multi-Ethnic, Low-Income Areas 0.00% 2.10% 0.00 Unclassified Unclassified 0.05% 0.06% 85.15

Area Percent GB Percent Index GB=100   £0-5K 7.90% 9.41% 83.96 £5-10K 14.63% 16.63% 87.97 £10-15K 15.63% 16.58% 94.26 £15-20K 13.58% 13.58% 99.96 £20-25K 10.86% 10.39% 104.53 £25-30K 8.40% 7.77% 107.99 £30-35K 6.40% 5.79% 110.50 £35-40K 4.86% 4.33% 112.26 £40-45K 3.70% 3.27% 113.45 £45-50K 2.83% 2.48% 114.19 £50-55K 2.18% 1.90% 114.60 £55-60K 1.69% 1.47% 114.78 £60-65K 1.32% 1.15% 114.77 £65-70K 1.04% 0.91% 114.63 £70-75K 0.82% 0.72% 114.40 £75-80K 0.66% 0.57% 114.10 £80-85K 0.53% 0.46% 113.75 £85-90K 0.42% 0.37% 113.37 £90-95K 0.34% 0.31% 112.97 £95-100K 0.28% 0.25% 112.56 £100K + 1.47% 1.34% 109.70