Northampton South
Labour hold

Of the three extremely narrow Labour gains in Northamptonshire in the 1997 General Election, South probably offers the most interesting to an outside observer. The electorate is divided between urban parts of Northampton and rural wards. It has the most fluid and the most rapidly increasing electorate in the county, especially in the Nene Valley development area situated on the southern edge of this large and expanding town. What is more, the Conservative candidate is Shailesh Vara, who attracted national attention in the autumn of 2000 when his beleaguered Labour opponent described him (in a private note, for which he quickly apologised) as the "wrong sort of Asian" for the seat: Vara is of Indian ancestry, whereas most of the small (5pc) non-white minority in the seat is said to consist of Muslims of Pakistani origin. This does not to be as relevant as the attitudes of the 95pc of white voters. One would normally expect the more rural elements of the seat to be Conservative - even more so perhaps given recent circumstances and opinion polls suggesting that the Tories are recovering ground in the countryside - while the Northampton town sections are mixed. It is unclear what the outcome will be in so complex a situation.

Tony Clarke's unexpected victory here in 1997 sent Michael Morris , the Conservative MP of 23 years scuttling off to the Lords with the rather splendid title of Lord Naseby. Clarke, local-born in 1963, a bearded local councillor, educated locally at Lings Upper School, and a social work trainer, made few headlines until wading waist deep in political incorrectness by referring to his Conservative Asian challenger as "exactly the right kind of candidate against us we'd want", as an Asian in a seat where some of the voters "have shown themselves in the past to be quite racist in their voting" and who was in any case the 'wrong sort' of Asian as a Ugandan Hindu in a seat where the ethnic vote is Muslim Bangladeshi or Pakistani. Otherwise statistically highly electable Shailesh Vara, a City-based solicitor, is a statutory Tory Asian, born 1960 in Uganda, educated at Aylesbury Grammar School, Brunel University and Guildford Law College. Given exposure at Party Conferences as a competent noteless orator, to correct the Party's monocultural image, he fought Clare Short in Birmingham in 1997, and is seen as a loyalist 'wet', but sceptical on Europe, opposing monetary union as a prelude to political union.

Area Percent GB Percent Index GB=100   Thriving Wealthy Achievers, Suburban Areas 20.89% 14.99% 139.32 Affluent Greys, Rural Communities 0.19% 2.13% 8.81 Prosperous Pensioners, Retirement Areas 0.24% 2.49% 9.71 Expanding Affluent Executives, Family Areas 16.72% 4.43% 377.76 Well-Off Workers, Family Areas 8.02% 7.27% 110.31 Rising Affluent Urbanites, Town & City Areas 1.35% 2.56% 52.51 Prosperous Professionals, Metropolitan Areas 0.00% 2.04% 0.00 Better-Off Executives, Inner City Areas 1.64% 3.94% 41.62 Settling Comfortable Middle Agers, Mature Home Owning Areas 12.02% 13.04% 92.18 Skilled Workers, Home Owning Areas 14.82% 12.70% 116.64 Aspiring New Home Owners, Mature Communities 5.02% 8.14% 61.62 White Collar Workers, Better-Off Multi Ethnic Areas 4.64% 4.02% 115.40 Striving Older People, Less Prosperous Areas 2.65% 3.19% 83.27 Council Estate Residents, Better-Off Homes 8.33% 11.31% 73.64 Council Estate Residents, High Unemployment 2.74% 3.06% 89.37 Council Estate Residents, Greatest Hardship 0.68% 2.52% 27.00 People in Multi-Ethnic, Low-Income Areas 0.06% 2.10% 2.87 Unclassified Unclassified 0.00% 0.06% 0.00

Area Percent GB Percent Index GB=100   £0-5K 7.85% 9.41% 83.43 £5-10K 14.70% 16.63% 88.37 £10-15K 15.59% 16.58% 94.01 £15-20K 13.49% 13.58% 99.28 £20-25K 10.78% 10.39% 103.75 £25-30K 8.34% 7.77% 107.31 £30-35K 6.37% 5.79% 110.06 £35-40K 4.86% 4.33% 112.10 £40-45K 3.71% 3.27% 113.55 £45-50K 2.84% 2.48% 114.53 £50-55K 2.19% 1.90% 115.13 £55-60K 1.70% 1.47% 115.43 £60-65K 1.33% 1.15% 115.51 £65-70K 1.05% 0.91% 115.40 £70-75K 0.83% 0.72% 115.15 £75-80K 0.66% 0.57% 114.79 £80-85K 0.53% 0.46% 114.35 £85-90K 0.43% 0.37% 113.84 £90-95K 0.35% 0.31% 113.29 £95-100K 0.28% 0.25% 112.71 £100K + 1.46% 1.34% 108.29