Orpington
Conservative hold

Despite its renowned history as the site of probably the most famed of the Liberal Party's many dramatic byelection gains (in 1962), Orpington has never been regained after Eric Lubbock lost it in 1970, and having missed being one of the Liberal Democrats' 46 victories in 1997, their highest number since 1929, it still only ranks 12th on their (rather ambitious) list of further gains at the expense of the battered Tories next time. Even in the borough elections (usually a Liberal strongpoint, far from always reflected in General Elections) in Bromley in 1998 they only outpolled the Tories by the insignificant margin of 41.3 pc to 41.2pc.

John Horam, a man-for-all-parties, was elected here for the Conservatives in 1992, having earlier been Labour, then SDP, MP for Gateshead West. After the election he will be the only survivor of the Gadarene rush of some 30 Labour MPs into the SDP in 1981, and the only one to engineer survival as a Tory. Owner of an economics consultancy, he was born 1939 and educated at Silcoates School, Wakefield and at St. Catherine's college, Cambridge. Dubbed "a dirty double rat" by Dennis Skinner, and by Simon Hoggart as making "the Vicar of Bray look like Bedgellert the Faithful Hound", in embracing Conservatism he opted for it in its most Thatcherite monetarist form. Short and chubby and balding with a birdlike tuft, he dislikes the above references to his political serial monogamy. The Liberal Democrats' Chris Maines is the would-be third-time-lucky candidate seeking to reincarnate Eric Lubbock nearly 40 years on. A management consultant, locally born in 1958 and educated at Ramsden Boys' School and Plymouth Polytechnic, he has a high local profile on Bromley Council.

Area Percent GB Percent Index GB=100   Thriving Wealthy Achievers, Suburban Areas 38.83% 14.99% 259.00 Affluent Greys, Rural Communities 0.00% 2.13% 0.00 Prosperous Pensioners, Retirement Areas 0.46% 2.49% 18.33 Expanding Affluent Executives, Family Areas 3.36% 4.43% 75.85 Well-Off Workers, Family Areas 6.44% 7.27% 88.49 Rising Affluent Urbanites, Town & City Areas 2.44% 2.56% 94.98 Prosperous Professionals, Metropolitan Areas 1.61% 2.04% 78.97 Better-Off Executives, Inner City Areas 0.32% 3.94% 8.17 Settling Comfortable Middle Agers, Mature Home Owning Areas 22.99% 13.04% 176.34 Skilled Workers, Home Owning Areas 5.15% 12.70% 40.57 Aspiring New Home Owners, Mature Communities 8.14% 8.14% 99.97 White Collar Workers, Better-Off Multi Ethnic Areas 0.52% 4.02% 12.81 Striving Older People, Less Prosperous Areas 4.02% 3.19% 126.33 Council Estate Residents, Better-Off Homes 3.17% 11.31% 27.99 Council Estate Residents, High Unemployment 1.82% 3.06% 59.56 Council Estate Residents, Greatest Hardship 0.69% 2.52% 27.33 People in Multi-Ethnic, Low-Income Areas 0.02% 2.10% 0.81 Unclassified Unclassified 0.03% 0.06% 42.29

Area Percent GB Percent Index GB=100   £0-5K 5.61% 9.41% 59.57 £5-10K 10.51% 16.63% 63.21 £10-15K 12.26% 16.58% 73.94 £15-20K 11.78% 13.58% 86.76 £20-25K 10.40% 10.39% 100.05 £25-30K 8.79% 7.77% 113.03 £30-35K 7.26% 5.79% 125.32 £35-40K 5.92% 4.33% 136.73 £40-45K 4.81% 3.27% 147.21 £45-50K 3.89% 2.48% 156.74 £50-55K 3.15% 1.90% 165.38 £55-60K 2.55% 1.47% 173.18 £60-65K 2.07% 1.15% 180.21 £65-70K 1.69% 0.91% 186.53 £70-75K 1.38% 0.72% 192.22 £75-80K 1.13% 0.57% 197.33 £80-85K 0.93% 0.46% 201.92 £85-90K 0.77% 0.37% 206.04 £90-95K 0.64% 0.31% 209.75 £95-100K 0.53% 0.25% 213.07 £100K + 3.03% 1.34% 225.60