Vale of Glamorgan
Labour hold

The Vale remains one of the three best hopes for the Conservative Party in Wales, along with Monmouth, which they actually won in the Welsh assembly elections (constituency section) in May 1999, and Clwyd West, which Labour held by 760 votes. The Tories came within a thousand here too (Labour's Jane Hutt obtained a majority of 926). However, it should not be forgotten that the Labour MP John Smith regained his seat in parliament (he had previously held it in 1989-92) by over 10,000 in 1997, far more than the Labour leads in the other two seats mentioned in this entry, and indeed than in Cardiff North, Preseli Pembrokeshire (and if you count gaps from a Conservative third place, Conwy and Cardiff Central too). This would make it much more of a surprise if it did fall at the next General Election.

John Smith was elected in 1997, having held the seat after a by-election from 1989 to 1992. Unkindly dubbed (by Simon Hoggart) a "low-tech flying fortress loaded with 10,000lbs of sycophancy", he is an orthodox loyalist with an air-brushed CND past whose by-election victory in 1989 symbolised Labour's climb-back to electoral credibility under the Kinnock leadership. Born 1951 of Welsh-Irish parents but with the commonest name in the English language, and educated at Penarth County School and (later) Cardiff University, he was initially a building worker, air force cook and joiner before lecturing in business studies. Safe rather than inspired, ex-mustachioed, he has served as a PPS to John Reid.

Area Percent GB Percent Index GB=100   Thriving Wealthy Achievers, Suburban Areas 29.92% 14.99% 199.52 Affluent Greys, Rural Communities 0.00% 2.13% 0.00 Prosperous Pensioners, Retirement Areas 1.33% 2.49% 53.42 Expanding Affluent Executives, Family Areas 4.30% 4.43% 97.20 Well-Off Workers, Family Areas 8.35% 7.27% 114.82 Rising Affluent Urbanites, Town & City Areas 0.60% 2.56% 23.22 Prosperous Professionals, Metropolitan Areas 0.05% 2.04% 2.31 Better-Off Executives, Inner City Areas 0.44% 3.94% 11.08 Settling Comfortable Middle Agers, Mature Home Owning Areas 12.31% 13.04% 94.44 Skilled Workers, Home Owning Areas 18.89% 12.70% 148.70 Aspiring New Home Owners, Mature Communities 8.88% 8.14% 109.06 White Collar Workers, Better-Off Multi Ethnic Areas 2.22% 4.02% 55.18 Striving Older People, Less Prosperous Areas 2.99% 3.19% 94.01 Council Estate Residents, Better-Off Homes 7.71% 11.31% 68.18 Council Estate Residents, High Unemployment 0.42% 3.06% 13.64 Council Estate Residents, Greatest Hardship 1.59% 2.52% 63.32 People in Multi-Ethnic, Low-Income Areas 0.00% 2.10% 0.00 Unclassified Unclassified 0.00% 0.06% 3.44

Area Percent GB Percent Index GB=100   £0-5K 8.55% 9.41% 90.80 £5-10K 16.07% 16.63% 96.60 £10-15K 16.55% 16.58% 99.85 £15-20K 13.85% 13.58% 101.94 £20-25K 10.72% 10.39% 103.15 £25-30K 8.06% 7.77% 103.72 £30-35K 6.01% 5.79% 103.84 £35-40K 4.49% 4.33% 103.67 £40-45K 3.37% 3.27% 103.33 £45-50K 2.55% 2.48% 102.89 £50-55K 1.95% 1.90% 102.41 £55-60K 1.50% 1.47% 101.92 £60-65K 1.17% 1.15% 101.45 £65-70K 0.92% 0.91% 101.00 £70-75K 0.72% 0.72% 100.58 £75-80K 0.58% 0.57% 100.20 £80-85K 0.46% 0.46% 99.84 £85-90K 0.37% 0.37% 99.52 £90-95K 0.30% 0.31% 99.23 £95-100K 0.25% 0.25% 98.96 £100K + 1.31% 1.34% 97.58